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Sports :: How To Make Carp Boilies And Fishing Paste Baits Using Pineapple Flavours And Butyric Acid!

12bet สํารอง This is a mixture of really seriously potent natural foods absolutely packed with feeding triggers and attractor substances that carp, and also other fish such as barbel and chub are extremely sensitive to!

Personally I avoid using any heated baits at all in cold water wherever possible. I say much more about this on CC Moore TV each month as a consultant describing how and why to use a massive diversity of various substances to trigger feeding in many potent ways and also gain incredible competitive edges over competing baits!

Cyprivit is an often over looked additive but it really enhances palatability and so boosts repetitive feeding, and the B vitamins in it really boost fish energy levels so improves your chances of getting more bites and more fish in the cold!

Other addictives that I would recommend include enzyme treated yeast powder and yeast powder (probiotic) and of course soluble fish protein and green lipped mussel extract. These really make such an incredible difference to results and impacts on fish senses believe me!

So you are looking to produce some incredibly effective economical paste baits, or boilies or pellets for this winter and spring? Pineapple is so popular but these extremely potent homemade baits described here are so different! These ideas and recipes will really prove their worth even as free baits or paste wraps around your favourite readymade boilies etc; so read on now!

Boilies really are not needed most of the time but I do not use baits because I want all the nutritional stimulation and attraction in my baits to be fully intact and leak off as efficiently as possible to seriously hit the fish right between the eyes! To most maximize cold water baits using the above ingredients and additives takes further understanding and secrets that make them incredibly habit forming over and above normal baits, and that is really where the biggest success is discovered! Revealed in my unique readymade bait and homemade bait carp and catfish bait secrets ebooks is far more powerful information look up my unique website (Baitbigfish) and see my biography below for details of my ebooks deals right now!

By Tim Richardson.

You really need to offer fish highly soluble ingredients and additives in very easily dispersed forms for fishing baits used in cold waters of the late autumn, winter and spring. Very usually additives and ingredients that are highly soluble also happen to be very much more easily digested by carp and other fish, and also really effectively disperse in the water column to form highly potent concentration gradients that fish can easily detect and home in onto in order to find your hook baits! Better than this though is that such fish will be excited to a massive degree before they reach your bait, thus making them much easier to catch as they drop their natural caution to a higher degree!

Ok I said this bait is about pineapple, well how about using the unique pineapple and butyric acid flavour custom designed by a leading house for CW Baits; it is really dominating waters now! Simply mix whatever ingredients and additives you wish to use into paste (you do not even need to use eggs,) maybe just Liquid Super Slop from CC Moore. This might mean recasting more often but it is very surprising that most pastes can be made to last intact for at least 6 hours and I have made homemade paste that lasts at least in terms of the main matrix of the bait as long as 23 hours plus (without using any egg!)

CC Moore Ultrasweet is an intense sweetener. I would get some CC Moore Super Slop in the course, and in the liquid forms. Few anglers use squid powder to alter characteristics of their sweet pineapple baits so try it! It might sound strange to use it alongside CSL (corn steep liquor) powder for instance or raw molasses but do it and see what occurs; I will not cover the nutritional secrets of why this is here but later in this article you will see where to find these secrets out OK!

The first step is to get some calcium caseinate and whey protein concentrate or lactalbumin and casein of varied forms. I might add some extra ingredients such as garlic powder, blue cheese powder rich in butyric acid and attractive salts and soluble proteins etc also. Think about it; doing this produces a double whammy effect of fast leak off of stimulation plus a slow but intense leak off that really lasts, both pulling fish in excited states and modes of behaviours to your hook baits! Look into this factor as much as possible and you really will reap big rewards as a result!

For paste using the above kinds of ingredients and additives you will have extremely potent paste, just add your pineapple flavour and away you go. Next get some fructose powder and lactose, maybe some vanilla extract meal and wheatgerm, Belachan or fermented shrimp powder from CC Moore, plus some betaine from them or the really effective betaine HCL from CW Baits. For a twist, why not mix up some high PC liquid lecithin from CW Baits with clove or cinnamon essential oil, and add this to you pineapple flavour!. I would certainly add Feedstim XP (In powder form), and hydrolysed poultry protein. This is renowned for use in cold water baits as well as in summer ones, but remember to use both fructose concentrate and this together because each enhances the habit-forming internal impacts internal duration of each of their impacts!

One massive point to make is that using both the liquid form of an additive or ingredients alongside the liquid form really is a fantastic edge for cold water baits. If you can’t get these or the cost is prohibitive then why not use other forms of milks like Vitamealo or Lamlac

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Barclays Premier League 2011-12 Fixtures, Scores & Results for Week 1

The English Premier League fixtures schedule got started up on Saturday, August 13th, with Arsenal FC and Liverpool among the m88 asia teams in action!

. The rest of his kit, long sleeves, shorts, socks and boots, is white.

There will be more from the Barclays Premier League with two games taking place on Sunday, including the very popular Manchester United squad taking on West Bromwich Albion. Liverpool and Sunderland battled to a 1-1 tie, as did Wigan and Norwich. His shorts bear the number 32.”/>The Barclays Premier League scores reflect that there have been several games already decided. Bolton defeated QPR with a 4-0 outburst in today’s action, while Blackburn was able to hold off the Wolves by a final score of 2-1.

The first of the Barclays Premier League 2011-12 scores and results are in from today’s action. These early games could show which teams will be above the rest of the league as they get their season started!

That leaves just one game on today’s fixtures schedule, with Newcastle visiting Arsenal. This will certainly be an early indication of any flaws or weaknesses in Arsenal’s lineup.

A young black man stands on a pitch dressed in football kit. Monday night will feature Manchester City as they head to Swansea City to do battle on the soccer field. Currently, Arsenal is favored to win today's game at -185, although the point spread is a https://www.m88u.com

The World’s Most Popular Casino Game: Blackjack

 Each time that you spin and shoot, you have a 1 in 6 chance of firing the actual bullet.  Basic strategy refers to using knowledge of the statistical averages of the game to win more hands than lose.  Each time you spin, the outcome becomes random – the gun has no memory of what just happened.  It’s usually on the left-hand side of the table.  Unlike Roulette where numbers come up completely randomly and there is no ‘winning strategy’.

A standard 8 deck game contains 416 cards (52 cards in each deck without the Joker).  And in a manual shoe (which, by the way, are not used much anymore due to card counting), the dealer generally puts the cards, from each finished hand, away into the discard holder until the cut card reappears.  Instead there are electronic shufflers which constantly shuffle the cards (constantly spinning the gun chamber) so it is complete random – card counting = impossible.

Blackjack is the best hand you can get – it’s getting 21 on your first two cards.  3 to 2 means 1 and a half times the original m88 asia bet, so $10 wins $15, $30 wins $45, $75 wins $112.50.  You shoot the gun and it’s empty.  Jack + King is 20.  So when a card comes out, it is forevermore taken out of the shoe until a new shuffle.

What is Blackjack?

What is card counting?

How does card counting apply to Blackjack?

First off, the Blackjack version referred to below is the one that many people know, love and play – a dealer ‘no hole card’ game.  A shoe is just the name for the container that holds the cards and where the dealer pulls the cards from. it’s a lot of fun!

Unlike poker, suits and picture-card ranks mean nothing in this game (except if you’re playing on Perfect Pairs, which is a sidebet).  An Ace and a Picture card – Blackjack!  A + K, 10 + A, etc.  You can split pairs.  Mathematically speaking, there are 128 cards worth 10 in an 8 deck game.  Chances are the dealer will bust.  There is a lot to basic strategy which I will delve into in the coming days and link to from this article for your convenience.  For the dealer, the house always takes cards for their highest value, so an A and 9 is not ’10 or 20′ – it’s just 20.

What is the best hand?

The best way to explain card counting is the analogy of the game of russian roulette, where there is 1 bullet in a gun chamber that holds 6 shots.  For example, if you have 16 and the dealer has a picture, you should definitely take another card.  When 1 Ace comes out, there are now 31 Aces left.  It traditionally pays 3 to 2.  No difference.  So, you do not spin.  You can double down (one card only).  Chuck it on whatever number on Roulette, whatever side on Baccarat, roll the dice like you just don’t care on Craps.  King + 10 is 20.  The big question is:

The house or the casino’s edge is as little as 0.05%, if a player plays perfect basic strategy.  In America, the dealer gets his second card – face-down.

Blackjack is a game developed over a couple of centuries – Spain and France had the beginning ideas of it in about 1602 AD, in games that were about getting to 21, and bestowing the Ace with a value of 1 or 11.  Blackjack cannot be formed again if you split hands, but that is another story – not something to worry about today.  For now, give it a go – even at home with one deck.  Without spinning, shoot again, etc.  128 cards out of 416 – almost a third.  Now, I have no problem with going to the casino, taking a couple of hundred dollars and just not worrying about the outcomes.  However, Blackjack is the only casino game where there is a strategy – it is not just random.  Let’s pretend it’s being dealt with a manual shoe – that means the dealer shuffles the cards well, the cards are cut (generally the player inserts a cut card into the deck, at least 1.5 decks from either end and the dealer moves all the cards in front of the cut card to the back) and the cards are placed in a shoe.  Shoot again – no bullet.

What do the cards mean?

All About Blackjack

The Classic Casino Card Game

Blackjack is a game of statistics.  The Ace is worth 1 or 11.  Basic strategy gives the player very exact rules to follow in every situation in the game, in order to give them the best possible chance of winning.  Consider this: if you shot the gun, it was blank, but did not spin before you shot again.  You shot again, and it was blank.  Queen + Queen is 20.  You spin the chamber again.  However, if the dealer had a 5, and you had 16 – you would stay.  This is the version played in Europe, Asia and Australia – where every player with a bet in the box is dealt a face-up card, from left to right, and then the dealer, and then every player is dealt a second card.  If either player goes over 21, they ‘bust’ – which means they lose.

What is basic strategy?

What is the house’s edge in Blackjack?.  With or without live bets on the table …  That’s 1 shot down.  You shoot.  Anyway, fast forward to today, and it’s the most-played casino game in the world.  You spin the chamber, and so on and so forth.  So a 10 is worth 10, as is the Jack, Queen or King.  You don’t have to go into a gambling venue to enjoy the game at https://th-th.facebook.com/m88.m88a.  That means that they will win 0.05% more than you do under basic strategy circumstances.  No bullet, again.  You could bust, but it gives you your best chance of winning if you draw.  The dealer does not get a second card – the house draws when all players have finished making their decision; therefore, what an individual player does directly affects the outcome for all players and the dealer.  Each time you shoot without spinning the chamber, there is a 1 in 6 chance, then a 1 in 5 chance, then a 1 in 4 chance until there is an extremely high chance at 1 in 3 or 1 in 2 that you will fire the bullet!  Bad game – I don’t recommend it.

Anyway, in those 8 decks, there are 32 Aces.  This is how card counting works – if you are very vigilant and have a good system (Hi-Lo is the most commonly known and used by the famous MIT groups) you can predict what the cards will be by keeping track of what cards have already come out.  Players try to make a hand (at least two cards, the value of which is added together) that is 21 or as close to 21 as possible – the dealer or ‘the house’ also draws cards to try to get to 21.  Another 3 come out – there are now 28 Aces.  2 is the lowest, then 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10/J/Q/K.  For the player, this means if they have A, 5 that is announced as ‘6 or 16′.  You can take a card, and another card, or not take any cards.  Needless to say, casinos do not like this, and for that reason manual shoes are not often used

The relationship between betting and lottery play.

The nature of substitution from the betting sector to lotto can therefore be revealed in greater and more reliable detail.

II. Controlling for the latter, our analysis revealed a degree of habit formation such that the amount staked on any 1 d reflected, at least for some products, the amount m88 asia bet the day before and on the same day the previous week. If no player wins this jackpot, the money is “rolled over” to the next draw. This is likely to have distorted their results.

[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]

We use BONUS in preference to a measure of price (the 1 pound entry fee minus the expected value of holding a ticket) because the amount of money rolled over from the previous draw is exogenous, whereas price would potentially be endogenous since, given the nature of the lotto game, expected value itself increases with the number of tickets sold (and therefore with the number of pounds attracted from betting). What costs and benefits are implied by offering lottery players better payouts? Will it damage the horse racing and breeding industries by drawing money away from wagering? Will it shift a significant volume of gambling from a “hard” form of gaming (betting) to a “soft” form (lotteries)? Does prohibiting access to low-cost wagering supplied via the Internet (as in the United States and France) protect the state lottery sector as well as domestic betting suppliers? These are the sorts of questions that require knowledge of whether and to what extent variation in value for money offered by lotteries induces reallocation of expenditure away from betting. Draws take place twice weekly, on Wednesday and Saturday evenings. (10) Adding rollover and Superdraw together gives greater precision in our estimates not only because of the greater number of “bonus” events but also because aggregation gives greater variation in the value of the BONUS variables. MODEL

TABLE 2

SUR Betting Turnover Estimates

A recent comprehensive report on gambling for the European Union (Swiss Institute of Comparative Law 2006, pp. The data therefore sometimes recorded Sunday business, but sometimes there was no business to record. By implication, some of the loss in lottery sales since 2001 is likely to be attributable to the large change in the relative prices of the two products associated with reform of betting tax. Phone 0044-161-295-3674, Fax 0044-161-295-2130, E-mail d.k.forrest@salford.ac.uk

The National Lottery variables, WEDNESDAY BONUS and SATURDAY BONUS, reflect that the behavior of potential players may be influenced by any bonus money added to the jackpot both on the day of the draw (when tickets may be purchased up to 7.30 p.m.) and on the two preceding days. Purfield and Waldron (1999) found that rollovers of the Irish lotto raised both lotto sales and the volume of side betting (with a major Irish bookmaker) on which numbers were drawn. “Buying a Dream: Alternative Models of Demand for Lotto.” Economic Inquiry, 40, 2002, 485-96.

ADF: Augmented Dickey-Fuller

Thalheimer, R., and M. (6) If households reallocate their gambling portfolios according to variations in relative price, this makes bookmaking potentially vulnerable if takeout falls in the lotto game, depending of course on the degree of sensitivity to value for money. Summaries of spending diaries were available for each of 6,637 households, which comprised a rolling sample, with each household taking part for 2 wk. Numbers equation also contains six subperiod dummy

variables to control for the variety of numbers game regimes during the

sample period.

Betting and lotteries are very different products. The total amounts wagered were provided for betting on horse racing, dog racing, soccer matches, and numbers games. Although the unit root test for numbers only rejects the null of nonstationarity at 10%, we are inclined to accept stationarity. To establish a consistent lag structure, it was necessary to treat each week as having the same number of days. Waldron. A fifth sector, sports betting (excluding soccer) was not included in our model because its volume is small and very heterogeneous in terms of the sort of events covered. On the other hand, payouts corresponding to small lotto prizes are much more generous than in the official game as bookmaking is very lightly taxed compared with the UKNL.

[TURNOVER.sub.it] refers to sales in sector i on date t. For example, a greater number of horse races shown on television lowered betting, presumably because potential bettors stayed at home. Such an effect was indeed detected, with a strongly significant negative coefficient, but only on Saturday and with a relatively low implied degree of cross elasticity.

We were supplied with over 5 yr of daily data on turnover in four forms of gambling offered by a major national but, for commercial reasons, anonymous British bookmaker. Access to a unique data set on betting with a prominent UK bookmaker permits us to offer an assessment.

Bank holiday soccer: dummy for a public holiday with a full English soccer programme.

UKNL: UK National Lottery

Big meeting: dummy for a day of one of the major Festival horse race meetings at Ascot, Goodwood, or Cheltenham.

Our results illustrate a certain willingness of players to reallocate their gambling budgets between the betting and the lottery as value for money changes from lottery draw to lottery draw. This is particularly true for bookmaker betting, where a much more favorable tax regime was introduced in 2001. Given this, horse bettors appear reluctant to forego wagers, whereas they appear less committed to the horses on Thursday.

The test statistics for our betting sectors, based on 12 lags without trend, were -3.74, -4.21, -6.22, and -2.62 for horses, dogs, soccer, and numbers, respectively, to be compared with a critical value of -2.86 at 5% significance and -2.57 at 10%. In the British version of the game, further variation in prize levels between draws occurs because the operator is permitted to reserve some revenue to fund occasional promotional “Superdraws” where extra money is added to the jackpot. Wednesday soccer and Wednesday lotto are clear substitutes.

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Bet Of The Day: Fulham v Bournemouth

ทางเข้า fun88 (It is exactly the same as betting on Fulham or Draw)

. They will definitely find it difficult to beat a Fulham side scrapping for survival and the return of captain Scott Parker could provoke a resurgence amongst Fulham’s performances.

As a result, our experts believe that Fulham have a massive opportunity to obtain even all 3 points at Craven Cottage. However, just to lower the risk, we bet on Fulham +0.5 Asian Handicap @1.925, bookie: Bet365.

Bet Of The Day: Fulham v Bournemouth 5.00/5 (100.00%) 1 vote

Fulham and Bournemouth are at the opposite ends of the Championship table with Fulham just narrowly sitting above the drop zone and Bournemouth in with a shout of achieving automatic promotion to the Premier League.

However, lately Bournemouth have gone off the boil. In all competitions they have just won 1 game in their last 5 away fixtures. Their win against Wolves on Tuesday was their first win in 5 matches and Bournemouth ‘s current away form has been abysmal

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Links found on Betting Blogger are affiliate links.  Online gambling and betting is becoming huge this day and age and information is spread all over the place. I am going to give you a few strategies to consider when you bet on sporting events. We have played poker at all of the online sites. If you are participating in sports betting then it is even more important to have fun the good old-fashioned way by winning your bets

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Horse Racing Systems: 5 That Work

This is somewhat counter-intuitive since you’d expect that horses with good pedigrees that end up in the maiden claiming ranks probably can’t run at all. Because speed figures have gained in popularity over the years, anyone following that system now would have trouble coming up with gas money for the ride home from the track.

For as long as humans have bet on horse racing there have been system sellers trying to con the gullible into parting with their hard earned money with the lure of easy profits to be made on the sport of kings. Thanks for reading, and see you in the winner’s circle.

Horse Racing System #2 – Bet horses that have an excuse for a poor performance in their last race. Instead of blindly betting all horses breaking from the inside, you might use this to supplement your handicapping, paying particular attention to the inside horse, and betting it when you like the horse on other handicapping grounds. None of them work.

Look for comment lines like “bled”, “lost rider”, “clipped heels”, “stumbled”, “steadied”, “between horses”, “rank”, and “jumped shadows” that suggest that a horse’s last race was not indicative of its true ability. In most case the public seems to take a horse’s last running line at face value. The inside post combined with early speed is a particularly potent combination, since the horse will not have to exert himself as much to gain his preferred position at the front of the pack.

Horse Racing System #3 – In maiden claiming races, bet the horse with the best pedigree. Just don’t expect to quit your day job.

First time starters return only about 60 cents on the dollar, and second time starters are only a little better, returning less than 70 cents on the dollar. One of the few anomalies turned up by Michael Nunamaker in his pioneering computer study “Modern Impact Values”, published in 1994, was that horses breaking from the inside post position in route races won more than their fair share of races, and were under-bet by the public. My own studies have shown a similar advantage for the inside post in routes.

How do we identify the best pedigree, then? If you’re using the DRF past performances, use the stud fee as a proxy for quality, and the Tomlinson figure to judge suitability for the distance and surface. The inside post in turf routes actually showed a small profit, but this was based on a small sample size and cannot be relied upon. With the BRIS pp’s you can use the Sire Production Factor in concert with the pedigree rating. Most people who love horse racing would be thrilled just to win a little more and lose a little less on their trips to the track.

In fact, pedigree does not generally offer wager value with one curious exception: well bred horses do surprisingly well in maiden claiming races. The horse with the best combination of the two is the play.

Horse Racing System #4 – Bet low-priced favorites to place. I’ve identified some of the most useful handicapping factors that have a proven history of doing much better than the track takeout and put them together with some simple rules that should make your trips to the racetrack more fun and profitable. This system takes advantage of one of the few glaring inefficiencies in the parimutuel pools, namely that first and second time starters are badly over-bet.

In that spirit. I was able to replicate this result in my own study of nearly 100,000 races conducted a decade later.

Second, the very nature of the parimutuel system itself means that any profits to be made from following a particular set of rules will quickly be arbitraged away as the followers of that system drive down the odds of horses chosen by the system.

This causes the favorite to be under bet in the place pool, leading to a profit opportunity for us to take advantage of by betting the favorite to place. It should go without saying that you should actually like the favorite’s chances after evaluating the race with your own handicapping.

However, just because systems won’t make you rich doesn’t mean there’s no place for them at all in a horseplayer’s arsenal. If the tote board suggests that the public is overlooking these mitigating circumstances, make your play.

The horse with the best last race speed figure (whether Beyer, BRIS, or Equibase) may not be the best horse in the race, but he’s probably not far off, so we can use that as a proxy for selection purposes.

Nunamaker reported that the inside post in dirt route races won at a 20% greater than expected rate, and lost only 10 cents on the dollar, much better than the track take. This is another mistake that bettors make: in a race with a clear standout, many people give up on the win pool and bet their choice to place, thinking that they’ll get paid even if the favorite wins.

In the first place, the parimutuel takeout in horse racing is large (over 15%) and the mutuel pools are relatively efficient, so that even systems with a strong basis in reality can’t overcome the size of the takeout.

Looking for a dead simple horse racing system that will allow you to quit your job and make a living betting the horses in just 10 minutes a day? Good luck with that!

Horse Racing System #1 – In maiden races, bet the horse with the best last race speed figure that has had at least two career starts. Few bother to even look at the comment line for the race, let alone take the trouble to seek out and watch the replay of the race. My computer studies of pedigree, based on nearly 100,000 races, suggest that using pedigree in that manner offers no advantage to the player.

For instance, many speed figure handicappers reported making horse racing profits in the 60’s and 70’s simply by betting horses with the best last race speed figure. It must follow, therefore, that if we bet the best horse that has started at least twice, we stand an excellent chance of beating the takeout, particularly in races that have several first and second time starters.

Horse Racing System #5 – Bet Horses breaking from the inside post in route races. To the extent that most handicappers use pedigree at all, it’s usually to identify horses that may improve when switched to the turf, or those who may be expected to win as first time starters. My study suggests that’s not the case.

None of these systems will make you rich, or even guarantee that you will make a profit. This offers opportunity to more diligent players.. They will, however increase the chances of a profitable day at the races by ensuring that your wager dollars go where they have the best chance of success. Let me let you in on a little secret about these “magic formulas”

Biggest Gambling Countries In The World

Otherwise, Australia is the only country that allows online bets on sports but prevents gamblers from using the Internet to place bets during live games.

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Gaming Losses Per Adult: $553

Era of Online Gambling

Australia: Biggest Gambling Country in the World

Gaming Losses Per Adult: $553

Gaming Losses Per Adult: $568

Gaming Losses Per Adult: $1,288. Reportedly, over 75 percent of adult Canadians took part in the games last year in which the most popular games are lotteries and Scratch and Win cards.

Gaming Losses Per Adult: $517

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Australia is the craziest country when it comes to gaming and gambling. Furthermore, the slot machines named pokies are the most favorite game in Australia with an estimated number of 75-80 percent of problem gamblers.

Las Vegas is well-known as the gambling industry of the world; however, American people are not the biggest gamblers on Earth. Most profits go to education, arts and culture.

Gaming Losses Per Adult: $517

The most favorite gambling activity in Italy is electronic gaming machine. Although the government has imposed an entry fee of S$100 ($80.50) for citizens entering the casino, the country’s gaming revenue is expected to hit $6.4 billion in 2011 and outpace Las Vegas.

Gaming Losses Per Adult: $1,288

Interestingly enough, the country’s national lottery company, Veikkaus, belongs to the government and is operated by the ministry of education. H2 Gambling Capital has released the list of biggest gambling countries due to average gaming losses.

Australia

Gaming Losses Per Adult: $1,174

Gambling’s Famous Icons

Gaming Losses Per Adult: $568

Italy

Gaming Losses Per Adult: $1,174

Finland

Canada

Singapore

Singapore offered the very first casino some years ago which then became the world’s third largest-gaming center after Macau and Las Vegas. In this country, gaming companies bet people on whether the central bank’s interest will increase or not. According to business advisory firm MAG Consulenti Associati, the electronic gaming makes up half of Italy’s total gaming revenues in first half of 2011.

The potash-rich province of Saskatchewan is home to the biggest gamblers in Canada

AIDS Patient Zero – InfoBarrel

Louis, Missouri) was the earliest confirmed victim of AIDS in North America.

Omega Man

Before Robert Rayford in the US, there was a possible case found in a dead Jamaican native named Ardouin Antonio.  He came to the US in 1927.  He was working as a shipping clerk for a clothier when he died at age 49 on June 28, 1959, in Manhattan.  He had developed a very rare kind of pneumonia, seemingly out of the blue.  Decades later the doctor who had performed Antonio’s autopsy was asked to re-evaluate the case.  Did he think Antonio possibly died of AIDS?  “You bet . many cases of AIDS have been autopsied that we didn’t even know had AIDS.”

The Road to Zero

AIDS in the United States was isolated in pockets of contagion until the promiscuity (homosexual or otherwise) of the 1970s gave the disease a clear path of propagation in humans.  IV drug use, on the rise in the 1970s and early 1980s, also provided another avenue of blood-exchange necessary for the virus to thrive. 

Current scientific research is clear: sometime in the 1930s, a simian form of immunodeficiency virus mutated sufficiently and made the leap across species to become a contagious disease of people. 

One such mystery concerned the AIDS epidemic in America.  As long as the killer remained comfortably within the gay community not much was done to investigate.  As soon as AIDS found its way into the heterosexual population, though, suddenly America’s interest in ferreting out the cause was paramount.  Panic stricken virologists and other epidemiologists worked feverishly to isolate the source of this sexually transmitted disease first endemic among homosexual men. 

Dating America’s exposure to AIDS is irrelevant: AIDS is a global problem.  And continuing research has led to many more interesting facts about the spread of HIV.

By the 1950s, this homophobia was rampant, and in the conservative times of Eisenhower and McCarthyism, men were slowly pushed out of the steward jobs.

Gaëtan Dugas, the narcissistic and embittered flight attendant, alternately feeling morose and spiteful about his condition, was given the code name “Patient Zero”, the source of the AIDS epidemic in North America. 

AIDS now had a face.

As early as his 13th year or sooner, he was sexually active.  Beginning in 1966, he started having some physical problems that seemed chronic.  His legs swelled, and he developed sores on his genitals and body. 

He led doctors to believe any of his sexual activities were strictly heterosexual, even claiming at one point to having a girlfriend (who failed to surface at the time).  [This female was found some time later and was found to be in perfect health, relative to HIV and AIDS, from which one can only surmise she and Rayford had no intimate sexual intercourse or such activities were rare enough she was not exposed to critical levels by whatever ailed him.]

The Greek letter “?” always refers to the end of an event or series, not its beginning.  Dugas was “Patient Zero”, not “Patient ?” – if the intent was to use such a Greek designation, he would have been named “Patient Alpha” (“?” or “?”)  for “the beginning”.  It is known that Dugas from the earliest investigations, based on diagrams the CDC (and others) created interlinking sexual contacts among those diagnosed with or dead from the mystery disease, was referred to from the start as Patient Zero (not Omega or “O”).

A strange disease lurked among the gay denizens and creepers of the bath houses, though.  Men began dying of pneumonia and other respiratory illnesses, but only after drastically losing weight and developing horrific skin lesions on their faces, necks, backs, and chests.  This disease became known in the gay community as “gay cancer”.  It was particularly volatile, and it progressed rapidly.  Dugas caught it early, possibly with his first encounter in the New York gay bathhouse on Halloween 1980..  

He had a chlamydia infection (a bacterial venereal disease), clearly indicating he was sexually active.  His doctors also uncovered evidence of the herpes simplex virus and the virus responsible for Epstein-Barr.  Robert Rayford was not terribly forthcoming with his doctors, partly due to his retardation leaving him mostly uncommunicative, but also because he was embarrassed by something.

In America, the results of further research led to the conclusion that Gaëtan Dugas had not been the true “Patient Zero” after all.

Gay men realized the danger.  Many made the intuitive leap early that perhaps certain activities, such as anal intercourse, might be transmitting the causative agent.  Others flatly refused to believe that their lifestyles might be endangering the health of themselves and of others.  They felt it was a perceived backlash against gay men.  Higher-profile gay men (many closeted during their lifetimes) and activists within the gay community began dying as well as underground sub-culture members (the “Crisco, leather, and fisting” set).

He was admitted with multiple, and strange, symptoms (given his tender age). Louis City Hospital, then transferred to Barnes Hospital (now Barnes-Jewish Hospital) in St. Kramer was a writer in New York and a part of the gay culture.  He, however, decided that merely watching his friends die quietly wasn’t enough. 

Thus, by the late 1940s male flight attendants were not only undesirable, they were suspect as well.  Occupying a job with women that devoted itself to customer service, good manners, and fine grooming, the stewards garnered suspicions of being “queer”.

The term “velvet rope” came into existence then – a red velvet rope (as one might see in a museum keeping patrons at a safe distance from a particularly priceless exhibit) became the literal and symbolic barrier between the plebes on the street and the hipsters within.  Each night crowds gathered outside Studio 54’s doors; admission was granted whimsically by a group of door men and many times by Steve Rubell himself. 

Occasionally, medical mysteries initially thought solved are found later to have very different truths at their cores.

He started out as a hairdresser.  Wanting to travel, this French-speaking Canadian learned that flight attendants for Air Canada had to be bi-lingual.  He moved to Vancouver and learned English to qualify for the job.  He found work as a flight attendant on Air Canada.  This career choice allowed him the freedom to move around the world, visiting exotic locales, and meeting many strange men for anonymous sexual encounters.  In 1977, he was legally married in Los Angeles, California, in an illegal attempt to gain United States citizenship.

This good person also kindly corrected some of the misinformation about Rayford via a personal e-mail and was also kind enough to forward professional papers on the subject.  One such paper, in Lymphology from 1973, gives, perhaps, the best clinical synopsis of the case.  Another article, entitled Documentation of an AIDS Virus Infection in the United States in 1968 (by the same doctor and others), is also a “must read” for anyone interested in the earlier origins of AIDS in America. 

This doctor handled, and talked with (though reported as largely uncommunicative), Robert Rayford personally for a period during Rayford’s confinement, and also attended Rayford’s autopsy, confirming the KS diagnosis and noting the preservation of tissue samples that later were shown to carry the variant of the HIV-1 virus.

The direct lineage of HIV-1 was traced to two groups of mutations that formed in the primates that carried the simian version.  One of the groups was dated to between 1847 and 1907; another subgroup dated to between 1606 and 1871.  HIV-2 made the leap most likely between the date range of 1856 and 1922.  Thus, it can be seen some prototypical version of the AIDS virus can be dated to the early 17th century.

In the end one can see there is no modern-day “Patient Zero”.

Almost any medical professional worth his or her license, whenever a patient dies of a strange ailment, takes the precaution of preserving tissue and blood samples for future research.  It is extremely fortunate that some doctors going all the way back to the late 1950s had been so far-sighted.  Working backward and re-examining suspicious or otherwise unresolved deaths from contagion globally proved enriching in piecing together the history of AIDS. 

Certainly, the African-American teenager Robert Rayford (who had never been outside the city of his birth) was not Patient Zero, either – somebody had to give it to him in the first place.

The hedonism of the 1970s raged unchecked, and by the middle of the decade “gay” culture became pop culture.  Gay male partiers in the mid 1970s found an outlet on New York’s Fire Island.  Gay men rented time-share space in houses on the island and partied their summers away “in season”. 

Good investigative work requires dogged determination.  Running an enigma to ground can take years. 

Molecular research shows the AIDS epidemic of the 1980s stemmed from a viral strain that had entered the US via Haiti about 1966.  Other strains have been isolated as well.  As in cases like Robert Rayford’s, the disease died with him (though he probably infected others, those people likely did not have access to the sheer number of sexual partners that, for example, Gaëtan Dugas had, and died before spreading it much). 

This virus, after much international wrangling for recognition of discovery (with a particularly aggressive and bombastic US virologist lobbying for a claim that he had found it first–he did not) was later named Human Immunodeficiency Virus or HIV. 

In conjunction with Studio 54, other bars for gay men to frequent thrived.  Another meeting place was the bath houses still found in many larger cities.  Once serving the utilitarian function for neighborhood residents to bathe (considering most homes up until the late 1920s did not have indoor plumbing) these quaint reminders of The Good Old Days were social gathering places for gay men.  They were prevalent in New York City and in San Francisco.  [Bette Midler, a great favorite among gay men, got her start singing in gay bath houses; her piano player in those days was songwriter/musician Barry Manilow).

Air Canada

Instead, about the only thing that can be said of HIV is that its “Ground Zero” location was almost certainly Central Africa.  

The criteria for entry were pure sadism: one night only women might be allowed in; other times, a sloppily dressed man might be sent away while another, looking exactly like that man but “famous”, would be let in.  Gay-themed parties were held there often, and casual sex in the bathrooms and the “exclusive” privacy lounge was common among attendees.

AIDS is what defined the decade of the 1980s, a decade that lived in fear beneath the penumbra of a certain and tortuous death from a highly communicable pathogen. It existed as “slim disease”; the condition was universally ignored though many Africans died after mysteriously wasting away.  In 1959, about the time the Manhattan Jamaican shipping clerk died of his rare pneumonia, a blood sample from a Congolese man was taken and preserved.  Years later, this proved to be HIV-infected.  This Congolese man’s fate is unknown (whether he developed full-blown AIDS and died from it or not).  Similarly, a preserved lymph-node biopsy specimen taken from a Congolese woman in 1960 later proved to be HIV-positive.

His first months in the hospital were spent with his doctors cutting back on his water and salt intake, and they wrapped and raised his legs, all to cut down on his tissue’s swelling.  Despite this, the inflammation moved up his body and into his lungs.  Antibiotics were tried in varying dosages, but Rayford’s condition continued to deteriorate. 

On October 31, 1980 – ominously enough, Halloween night – the French-Canadian gay male steward Gaëtan Dugas visited a gay bathhouse for the first time on a layover in New York City.

Anal scarring also indicated repeated sexual penetration.

In his wake, one of the unfortunate legacies he left was a renewed homophobia relative to male flight attendants.  They became a lightning rod for America’s fear and anger over AIDS and its links with homosexuality.  “Patient Zero”, Gaëtan Dugas, was reviled; in death he was even accused of bringing HIV to North America and spreading it around the country.

First denying he was sick, he later willfully and maliciously spread the disease to unsuspecting partners.  After having casual sex in a darkened room once, a male interviewee later reported he had turned on a light in the room where Dugas lay naked on a bed.  This man spotted the lesions (Kaposi’s sarcoma) that were the classic earmarks of “gay cancer” on Dugas’ chest.  When he remarked upon it, Dugas replied sardonically, “It’s gay cancer.  Maybe you’ll get it.”

Meanwhile, as a symbolic sign of the coming Armageddon, Studio 54 was forced to close its doors for liquor license violations and tax evasion; entrepreneurs Steve Rubell and his business partner were sentenced to short terms of imprisonment.  [Rubell later died of AIDS.]

The very first air flight attendants (in the 1920s) were men.  These positions were desirable; the men who did these jobs executed their duties more like up-scale, futuristic train porters and ship stewards than as menials.  As with many professions in that era (especially in service jobs such as telephone operators, bank tellers, et al) the sky porters known as “stewards” were exclusively male.  World War I saw the shift from male to female telephone operators and bank tellers; with a dearth of male workers during World War II, employers turned to the fairer sex to fill their employment needs in the airline industry, too. 

The commercial airlines recognized the goldmine presented by hiring female “stewardesses”.  Certainly, they were paid less.  There was also marketability in women that men did not have – women could be hawked by an airline as possible sex partners for the discriminating male traveler choosing its service over another.

Both his wife and daughter developed an illness that mimicked his symptoms, and they died in 1977. Memory Elvin Lewis

Dr.   The swelling in his legs was bothersome, his genitals and legs were covered in scrofulous skin, and his testicles were severely swollen.  He was also emaciated (having lost much weight suddenly), and even though he was an African-American male he was considered “pale”.  He also had shortness of breath.  His symptoms led his caregivers at Barnes Hospital to conclude that one of his problems was lymphedema (a swelling caused by lymphatic problems).  This was only a tiny part of his health issues, however.

A year earlier, a Portuguese man known only as Senhor José died under mysterious circumstances.  He was treated at the London Hospital for Tropical Diseases to no effect.  In later years, examination of preserved tissues verified he died of AIDS; the causative virus, HIV-2 was present, making him the first known confirmed victim.  Genetic research on the virus indicated he probably contracted the disease in 1966 in Guinea-Bissau (on the northwest coast of Africa).  Three gay men in California and six Haitian immigrants to the United States were later confirmed as AIDS victims from that same year.

The End of Days was seemingly at hand.

Gay and straight partiers alike finally found their Valhalla, however, in New York City in a crummy little club in the 1970s called Studio 54.  This rat hole was converted into a hot spot known all over the world.  Celebrities fell all over themselves to get in and be seen there.  Its allure was its faux air of exclusivity.  No club before or since carried the cachet of Studio 54.  Co-founded and owned by a cabaret-style, (almost a caricature) flamboyantly gay man, Steve Rubell, and a straight-laced heterosexual lawyer, this kitschy club defined hipsters in the Seventies. 

The music scene was fueled by this gay celebration, none more blatantly than by a vocal group of disco hustlers calling themselves “The Village People”.  They dressed in favorite and stereotypical gay icon costumes – a policeman, a construction worker, a cowboy, a gay biker, and a Native American.  They were hugely successful for a short time with big sellers “In the Navy” and “YMCA”.  More subtly, Donna Summer performed her brand of dance music that was embraced by the gay community as was she.

Of a most enlightening nature was Rayford’s adamant refusal of any rectal exams.  It seemed that he may have been exposed to homosexual activity (assuming the submissive role in anal intercourse).  One of his attending physicians believed that he had been a victim of sexual abuse (a very likely scenario considering Rayford’s socio-economic background).  He could also have been “pimped out” against his will by someone who procured males to engage with him.  To date, this aspect of his life is unclear.

Concern for dying gay men was not paramount on America’s mind.  As more cases of the mysterious killer emerged, the name was changed from “gay cancer” to “gay-related immune deficiency” (GRID).  This, at least, was an open recognition that whatever was causing the disease was compromising a body’s immune system.  It didn’t explain, however, the rather esoteric choice of gay men (and soon discovered, IV drug users) by an unintelligent, non-sentient pathogen as victims.  It wasn’t until the first heterosexual cases of “gay cancer” emerged that the disease was examined more closely.

Dugas remained unrepentant.  He originally denied that whatever disease it was he had could be transmitted sexually.  His own words on the subject: “Of course I’m going to have sex.  Nobody’s proven to me that you can spread cancer.”  His depraved indifference to his sexual partners’ well-being was summarized with “It’s their duty to protect themselves.  They know what’s going on out there.  They’ve heard about this disease.”  The last element of his bitterness was voiced by his wish to take others with him: “I’ve got gay cancer.  I’m going to die and so are you.” 

The dubious distinction of being America’s “Patient Zero” – the first documented and verifiable case of AIDS in the country – belongs not to Dugas but to a mildly mentally retarded black teenager named Robert Rayford (born ca. . It was so unusual at the time .

The music was disco, the dance beat adapted from gay men and their party scene.  The mock S&M dance moves, the sweaty bodies, the throb of the music, the drugs consumed, and the fact that not just anyone could get in heightened its allure.

Gaëtan Dugas fit right in with the gay community of the bath houses.  He was blond, voluble, and open.  Sex for him was a series of anonymous engagements, many times conducted hastily in bathroom stalls.  He took on whatever he felt like.  As well as many other men, he was developing what would become known as “The Clone Look”: close-cropped hair, largish but well-groomed mustache, muscle shirts, short shorts.  [The quintessential version of “The Clone Look” would be Freddie Mercury (rock band Queen’s lead vocalist who died of AIDS) after about 1981.] 

Rayford lived in a brownstone in a poor neighborhood in St. . Memory Elvin-Lewis, thank you so much for not only your contributions to science but to my humble efforts at disseminating it for general readership.  I truly appreciate it.

Diverting conversations occurred between Rayford and his primary care givers when questioned about his sexual activities.  His doctors had not considered homosexuality initially, and all conversations, such as they were, seemed to be taken as referring to female sexual contacts.

Running Dugas to ground, however, was pointless.  At the time, there were no criminal laws penalizing the willful spread of a known fatal disease (since then, law changes allow charges of attempted and pre-meditated murder to be brought in many states against anyone who is HIV-positive purposefully engaging in unprotected sexual intercourse with an unwitting partner).

He wrote myriad articles on the subject and penned a stage play, “A Normal Heart”, that did well.  In May 2014, this stage play was brought to the small screen.  It was presented as a movie on HBO starring Jim Parsons (of “Big Bang Theory” TV fame).  The story documented the earliest days of the AIDS epidemic in America told from the perspective of the New York City/Fire Island cohort.  It is engaging: it is what TV can do (but usually fails to do except in rare cases like this one).

Certainly it was not Gaëtan Dugas (though, like Typhoid Mary over half a century before him, many deaths could be placed squarely on his doorstep). 

Author’s note

Larry Kramer was actively and aggressively involved with what was then known as “gay cancer” in the early 1980s when the disease first made its poisonous presence visibly known in the United States as “gay cancer”. 

And the real Patient Zero – the HIV-Adam or HIV-Eve – lived and most likely died there, somewhere in the Congo, unknown and unrecognized for the catastrophic role he or she would play in human history. 

There is an interesting correlation between homosexuality and the airline industry.  At least, there is a publicly perceived correlation as it pertains to airline flight attendants.

The teen seemed stabilized by late 1968 (when he was around 15 years old).  He had been transferred to Deaconess Hospital by then, and in March 1969, however, all of his symptoms reappeared and rapidly worsened.  His breathing labored; his white blood cell count (as part of routine blood work) was noted to have dropped dramatically.  The only thing concurred at the time was that Rayford’s immune system had been somehow compromised.  He developed a fever and died either in the late hours of May 15, 1969, or the early hours of May 16 (sources differ).  His primary physician recalled, “Eventually his entire body constituted almost one wave of hard lumps and watery swellings.”

There is an apocryphal story that Patient Zero was really Patient “O” (as in the 15th letter of the English alphabet, first letter of the word “Omega” for the last letter of the Greek alphabet, ?).  Furthermore, it was alleged that a journalist misinterpreted the “O” (for “?”), and instead wrote up his report, referring to the AIDS’ source as “Patient 0″ [“zero”] instead.

False Positive

The discrimination in the labor market meant the United States Supreme Court had to step in and force airlines to hire male flight attendants.  This happened in 1971 after nearly 20 years of female-dominated service.  Even then, the Court’s decision forcing US airlines to hire men was greeted with derision in the press.  It also raised homophobic fears of placing men in such a servile and sexualized role. . Somewhere, there was a Patient Zero, the epidemiological well-spring from which this plague spewed forth.

Tracing backward from Haiti (the source of the US strain in 1966) put the disease firmly in Central Africa. Memory Elvin-Lewis was kind enough to respond to this piece in person.

Ground Zero

Without a precise diagnosis, Rayford’s cause of death was attributed to the catch-all vagary “loss of vitality”.  Intractable fluid imbalance and lung disease were listed as contributors.  An autopsy revealed a surprise – his body carried a very rare cancer called Kaposi’s sarcoma internally (though he had but one external lesion on his right thigh).  [Today, this cancer and its lesions are bellwethers of AIDS.] 

Years later, once medical science, and particularly genetics testing, had reached a greater level of technological advance, a revision of the “Patient Zero” findings of 1984 seemed necessary.  What was learned by later research was both fascinating and horrific simultaneously.  It turned out, HIV had not only been in the world for over a century, but it had been in the United States as early as 1966. 

Gaëtan Dugas died in Quebec City, Quebec, Canada, on March 30, 1984, at the age of 31.  His cause of death was kidney-failure brought on by his weakened condition from an onslaught of infections and ailments from AIDS.

But, it doesn’t end there. 

“I’m Candy – Fly Me!”

Because of the baffling nature of his case, doctors preserved several tissue and blood samples for later evaluation.  In 1987, eighteen years after his death, molecular biologists at New Orleans’ Tulane University tested specimens of Rayford’s preserved blood and tissues.  Their findings were stunning: a virus “closely related or identical to” HIV-1 was detected.  Further confirmation testing in 1989  proved Robert Rayford (African-American teenage male of St. Louis, Missouri.  His mother’s name was Constance Rayford, and he had a brother named George.  Rayford was described as slender.  His retardation left him relatively uncommunicative from shyness. 

***

As further incentive to not hire men as flight attendants, the death of a gay steward in 1954 became a scandal sufficiently great to lead to a rash of “fag bashings” (both gay men and lesbians were targeted) in Miami, Florida.  It was one of the nation’s worst anti-gay outbreaks in history. 

From a front-line perspective

Mr. Doctors, helpless to find the cause of death for the Noe family, preserved some tissue samples.  In 1988, further testing showed Noe, his wife, and his daughter had all been HIV-positive

For one gay man, however, being a steward was all he’d needed to satisfy both his wanderlust and his physical lust. 

The airline industry developed glamour.  The titillation of a sexy stewardess in uniform, pandering to any business traveler’s ego, was priceless.  These were women without boundaries, women who went anywhere, anytime.  Therefore, they must be promiscuous.  The unspoken possibility of sex with a globe-trotting gal was also alluring.  Married women were aggressively discouraged from working as stewardesses.  The single women, all within a certain preferred range of body type, height, and attractiveness, were wanton women (in the minds of the average male of the day).  Although morbid obesity was not the problem in the 1940s it is today, there were no “big girls” on board.

Dr. 1952-1953).

This makes little sense. 

By April of 1982, 248 cases of the disease were reported nationwide with many others too afraid or indifferent to see a doctor.  A virus was isolated in 1983 by French scientists (as Europeans were also recognizing and treating patients with “gay cancer”, many of whom were decidedly not gay). 

Dugas, meanwhile, knew he was sick.  He didn’t know exactly what was wrong, but he had developed the skin lesions, associated with “gay cancer”.  But one can’t spread cancer, of course, because cancer isn’t contagious.  He indiscriminately continued having sex with men as his whims overtook him.  His “advantage” was his mobility – as a flight attendant, he might be in any part of the US, Canada, or the world on a moment’s notice.  His bitterness about having gay cancer crossed over into his lackadaisical attitude about possibly harming others.

Homophobia was so great by the late 1950s almost no airlines in the United States would hire men as flight attendants – even Eastern and Pan Am stopped hiring stewards.  Stewardesses, however, were very desirable.  They were marketed as young, beautiful, and sexually available–this was hardly an acceptable career choice for any he-man.  In the same way that the sexual orientation of male nurses was suspect, only “pansies” wanted to be stewards.

Dugas may have personally, and directly, been responsible for dozens of AIDS cases (and no telling how many more indirectly), but he did not bring AIDS to the US, nor was he the first confirmed AIDS victim.  As noted, several California men and some Haitian immigrants were found later to have succumbed to the disease before Dugas.

In 1976, a Norwegian sailor, designated with the alias “Arvid Noe”, died; his wife and nine-year-old daughter died the next year of the same wasting disease.  In 1961, the 15-year-old Noe had sailed on his first voyage to Africa.  He worked a merchant vessel that plied along Africa’s west coast from mid-1961 to mid-1962; during this voyage he was treated for gonorrhea.  He sailed again to Africa in 1964, with a port of call in Kenya in eastern Africa.  In 1966, Noe started suffering from chronic joint pain and recurrent lung infections.  By 1968, he could no longer pass a physical to sail, so he worked as a long-haul truck driver. 

In 1979, before Dugas was infected, a bisexual German concert violinist, Herbert Heinrich, died.  In 1989, after testing of medical samples from his body, it was learned he was HIV-positive. 

The disease it spawned was rechristened, in light of its indiscriminate virology, to Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome or AIDS.  That same year that 248 cases of the disease were reported, local health departments in conjunction with the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) in Atlanta began investigating.

Of the 248 cases known before the detection of the virus, interviewing led to the shocking revelation that at least 40 AIDS victims had one thing in common: all had either had sex with a certain male, blond, gregarious Air Canada flight attendant, or they had sex with someone who did.  This networking connection was made in 1984, and it was critical – it meant medical and public health officials investigating the source of AIDS might have finally gotten the breakthrough they needed. 

Grethe Rask was a Danish surgeon who had traveled to Zaire in 1972 to lend medical aid for the sick there.  She returned to Denmark in 1976 and became relentlessly ill.  Her symptoms confounded her colleagues.  She died in December 1977.  Several years later in 1984, it was confirmed through testing she was HIV-positive.  During her time in Zaire, it was known she was directly exposed to blood – it is believed this was the source of her infection.

Gaëtan Dugas was a French-Canadian born February 20, 1953.  His life was on a collision course with history.  In 1972, Dugas first became sexually active.  [He would later claim he had over 2,500 sexual partners in his lifetime, whether all male is unknown.  He may have been bisexual.] 

Gateway to the West

Noe’s condition stabilized, but then flared up again in 1975 (coincidentally the same year a strange disorder called “slim disease” was reported in Africa for the first time, the beginnings of epidemic AIDS).  In addition to the respiratory condition and joint pains he developed motor skill problems and dementia before he died. 

Finally, in 1968, the boy was admitted to St. . Louis. 

Less Than Zero

Update note:Dr

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Play Casino And Poker Online

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Horse Racing Systems: 5 That Work

To the extent that most handicappers use pedigree at all, it’s usually to identify horses that may improve when switched to the turf, or those who may be expected to win as first time starters. The inside post combined with early speed is a particularly potent combination, since the horse will not have to exert himself as much to gain his preferred position at the front of the pack.

First time starters return only about 60 cents on the dollar, and second time starters are only a little better, returning less than 70 cents on the dollar. It must follow, therefore, that if we bet the best horse that has started at least twice, we stand an excellent chance of beating the takeout, particularly in races that have several first and second time starters.. The horse with the best combination of the two is the play.

Instead of blindly betting all horses breaking from the inside, you might use this to supplement your handicapping, paying particular attention to the inside horse, and betting it when you like the horse on other handicapping grounds. I’ve identified some of the most useful handicapping factors that have a proven history of doing much better than the track takeout and put them together with some simple rules that should make your trips to the racetrack more fun and profitable. Most people who love horse racing would be thrilled just to win a little more and lose a little less on their trips to the track.

This causes the favorite to be under bet in the place pool, leading to a profit opportunity for us to take advantage of by betting the favorite to place. I was able to replicate this result in my own study of nearly 100,000 races conducted a decade later.

For as long as humans have bet on horse racing there have been system sellers trying to con the gullible into parting with their hard earned money with the lure of easy profits to be made on the sport of kings. If the tote board suggests that the public is overlooking these mitigating circumstances, make your play.

How do we identify the best pedigree, then? If you’re using the DRF past performances, use the stud fee as a proxy for quality, and the Tomlinson figure to judge suitability for the distance and surface. Thanks for reading, and see you in the winner’s circle.

For instance, many speed figure handicappers reported making horse racing profits in the 60’s and 70’s simply by betting horses with the best last race speed figure. In most case the public seems to take a horse’s last running line at face value. My computer studies of pedigree, based on nearly 100,000 races, suggest that using pedigree in that manner offers no advantage to the player.

In that spirit. This is somewhat counter-intuitive since you’d expect that horses with good pedigrees that end up in the maiden claiming ranks probably can’t run at all. They will, however increase the chances of a profitable day at the races by ensuring that your wager dollars go where they have the best chance of success. This system takes advantage of one of the few glaring inefficiencies in the parimutuel pools, namely that first and second time starters are badly over-bet.

Nunamaker reported that the inside post in dirt route races won at a 20% greater than expected rate, and lost only 10 cents on the dollar, much better than the track take. None of them work.

However, just because systems won’t make you rich doesn’t mean there’s no place for them at all in a horseplayer’s arsenal. This is another mistake that bettors make: in a race with a clear standout, many people give up on the win pool and bet their choice to place, thinking that they’ll get paid even if the favorite wins.

Look for comment lines like “bled”, “lost rider”, “clipped heels”, “stumbled”, “steadied”, “between horses”, “rank”, and “jumped shadows” that suggest that a horse’s last race was not indicative of its true ability. Just don’t expect to quit your day job.

In the first place, the parimutuel takeout in horse racing is large (over 15%) and the mutuel pools are relatively efficient, so that even systems with a strong basis in reality can’t overcome the size of the takeout.

None of these systems will make you rich, or even guarantee that you will make a profit. Few bother to even look at the comment line for the race, let alone take the trouble to seek out and watch the replay of the race. Let me let you in on a little secret about these “magic formulas”. One of the few anomalies turned up by Michael Nunamaker in his pioneering computer study “Modern Impact Values”, published in 1994, was that horses breaking from the inside post position in route races won more than their fair share of races, and were under-bet by the public. The inside post in turf routes actually showed a small profit, but this was based on a small sample size and cannot be relied upon. My study suggests that’s not the case.

The horse with the best last race speed figure (whether Beyer, BRIS, or Equibase) may not be the best horse in the race, but he’s probably not far off, so we can use that as a proxy for selection purposes.

Horse Racing System #3 – In maiden claiming races, bet the horse with the best pedigree. Horse Racing System #5 – Bet Horses breaking from the inside post in route races. It should go without saying that you should actually like the favorite’s chances after evaluating the race with your own handicapping.

Horse Racing System #2 – Bet horses that have an excuse for a poor performance in their last race. With the BRIS pp’s you can use the Sire Production Factor in concert with the pedigree rating. Because speed figures have gained in popularity over the years, anyone following that system now would have trouble coming up with gas money for the ride home from the track.

Horse Racing System #4 – Bet low-priced favorites to place. This offers opportunity to more diligent players.

Looking for a dead simple horse racing system that will allow you to quit your job and make a living betting the horses in just 10 minutes a day? Good luck with that!

Horse Racing System #1 – In maiden races, bet the horse with the best last race speed figure that has had at least two career starts. My own studies have shown a similar advantage for the inside post in routes.

Second, the very nature of the parimutuel system itself means that any profits to be made from following a particular set of rules will quickly be arbitraged away as the followers of that system drive down the odds of horses chosen by the system.

In fact, pedigree does not generally offer wager value with one curious exception: well bred horses do surprisingly well in maiden claiming races